Even when farmers adapt to extreme weather, crop losses continue
A first-of-its-kind study analyzed the real-life measures that farmers worldwide are taking to combat reduced yields due to higher temperatures, drought conditions and other extreme weather. The findings indicate that even as they try to adapt to changing conditions, farmers are still experiencing a decline in agricultural productivity.
The steepest losses are occurring at the extremes of the agricultural economy, including in modern breadbaskets, making yield losses in the United States among the most significant. The analysis finds that yield losses globally may average 41% in the wealthiest regions and 28% in the lowest income regions. Loss leaders include areas with modern technology and some of the best growing conditions, as well as those in subsistence farming communities.
The researchers, which included those at land-grant institutions in Illinois and New Jersey, estimate that every degree Celsius increase in temperature on average drags down the world’s ability to produce food by 120 calories per person per day, or 4.4% of current daily consumption.
Previous studies suggest that increasing temperatures might increase global yields under perfect conditions. However, those findings did not account for realistic adaptation measures by farmers which include shifting crop varieties and changing planting and harvesting dates. The study drew on data from more than 12,000 regions across 55 countries.
Illinois Agricultural Experiment Station | Participating researchers from the University of Illinois, University of Chicago, Rutgers University and the Rhodium Group. Project supported by private grants and contracts. Graphic courtesy of Illinois Agricultural Experiment Station.
